The American Institute of Architecture has announced the longest ever slump in architecture revenues in the US measured by the ABI index, citing "macroeconomic uncertainty" associated with rising oil prices.
Today, the July report of the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI), an index tracking non-residential construction in the American architecture industry since the 1990s, cited a decrease from June to July in its metrics.
The decrease is part of a downward slope that has lasted three and a half years, according to the American Institute of Architects (AIA) – the longest since the ABI began.
"This ongoing slump in business conditions has now stretched to nearly three and a half years, the longest in the ABI's history," said the AIA.
Contract value falling
The report was tempered by a note of client interest and an increase in inquiries across the industry, but also noted a decrease in the value of signed contracts.
"Clients continue to show interest, as inquiries for new projects rose again in July, though more slowly than in June. At the same time, the value of newly signed design contracts fell further after coming close to growth the previous month."
Out of the four regions the index tracks, the American Northeast had the biggest slump, with a score of 44.8, with 50 meaning no growth or decrease. The other three regions showed slight upticks from lows earlier in the year.
The overall index put July at 46.6.
The slump covered all areas of specialisation tracked by the index.
"Billings fell across every specialization," said the AIA.
"Firms with multifamily residential and institutional specializations posted slight growth earlier this year but have since seen conditions soften. Firms with a commercial and industrial specialization have not reported a rise in billings since July four years ago."
"High oil prices are putting upward pressure on inflation"
According to AIA chief economist Richard Branch, general economic conditions are driving the slump.
"Macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh on the built environment," said Branch.
"High oil prices are putting upward pressure on inflation and may lead to even higher rates in the back half of the year. This will put additional pressure on developers and may lead to a further weakening in billings."
This fall in revenues is happening at the same time as rising construction costs. According to the Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) research on Bureau of Labor Statistics data, construction prices have risen as much as 7.4 per cent year over year since July 2025.
While the stretch is technically the longest the index has been in the negative, a spokesperson from the AIA noted that the billings today are nowhere near the lows of 2020 during Covid, when they reached as low as 29.6.
The longest stretch before was around 30 months following the 2008 recession.
Last year, Dezeen took a look at problems facing the architecture industry, including a general lowness of fees.